Table of Contents

1. What Zillow's Forecast Is Saying

2. How Kansas City Compares to Other Markets

3. Why KC Is Holding Steady: Affordability + Supply

4. What the Local Data Says (2021–2025)

5. County-by-County Breakdown

6. Wildcards That Could Shape 2026

7. Final Takeaway: Not Crashing, Just Correcting

8. Want a Deeper Look? Book a Call or Watch the Video

What Zillow's Forecast Is Saying

Zillow just released their latest U.S. housing forecast, and the headline is a 1% national price drop between June 2025 and June 2026. That may not sound like a big crash, but it’s a big swing from their previous forecast of a +2.6% gain earlier this year.

What changed? In short: inventory is rising, but buyer demand isn’t keeping up. That mismatch is putting pressure on prices in overheated markets.

Zillow’s top decliners?

• 🏠 Austin, TX: -5.1%

• 🌉 San Francisco, CA: -6.1%

• 🎷 New Orleans, LA: -7.2%

But here in Kansas City? Zillow expects just a 0.7% dip. Practically flat. So what’s happening?

How Kansas City Compares to Other Markets

Let’s be real. KC didn’t have a Miami-style boom—and we’re not getting a Miami-style bust either.

Why? Two big reasons:

• Affordability: KC never saw runaway price growth.

• Inventory: We don’t have a flood of homes hitting the market like other cities.

Zillow’s national model can’t always account for what’s really going on at a hyperlocal level—and that’s especially true in the Midwest.

Why KC Is Holding Steady: Affordability + Supply

Here’s where the numbers get interesting. The peak for new construction permits in the Kansas City metro was in 2021, with over 6,500 permits pulled. But since then:

• 2022: 4,885 permits

• 2023: 3,947 permits (a 40% drop from peak)

• 2024: ~4,500 permits

• 2025: Slight uptick in single-family homes, but multifamily starts are down again

So even though interest rates are high, we’re not building enough homes. And that’s keeping prices stable.

What the Local Data Says (2021–2025)

Let’s zoom in. Kansas City saw wild swings the past few years:

• 2022: Red-hot spring, then rates rose → sales down 12%

• 2023: Even slower → sales down another 15%, days on market rose to 36

• 2024: Flat year overall, but prices ticked up to a median of $315K

• 2025 (so far):

  • Sales up 1.8%

  • Days on market: 44

  • Median price: $325K

  • Inventory: 2.3 months (a balanced market is 5–6 months)

This isn’t a crash. It’s a rebalancing.

County-by-County Breakdown

📍 Johnson County (KS)

• Median Price: $463,000

• Days on Market: 38

• Sales up 9.6% → buyers still active despite affordability squeeze

📍 Jackson County (MO)

• Median Price: $270,000 (+5.4%)

• Days on Market: 42

• Sales flat year-over-year

📍 Clay County (MO)

• Median Price: $330,000 (flat)

• Days on Market: 38

• Sales up slightly

📍 Platte County (MO)

• Median Price: $390,000 (flat)

• Days on Market: 51

• Inventory up 22% → watch this one for softening

📍Wyandotte County (KS)

• Median Price: $235,000 (+6.8%)

• Days on Market: 37 (+27.6% YoY)

• Still affordable, but market cooling a bit

So what’s the real story? It depends on your zip code. Some areas are red-hot, others are shifting toward a buyer-friendly zone.

Wildcards That Could Shape 2026

Let’s talk about the stuff not in the data yet:

💥 Interest Rates

• If rates drop to the mid-5s → expect a buying surge

• If rates climb or stay flat → more of the same: slow volume, more days on market

🏟️ Short-Term Rental Rules + the World Cup

• KC cracked down on Airbnbs—but there's talk of relaxing restrictions during the 2026 World Cup

• Could lead to fewer homes hitting the market if owners wait to cash in on tourism

🌎 Global Spotlight from the World Cup

• If KC shines on the global stage → long-term impact from investors, corporations, and relocators

• More attention = more demand = long-term price support

Final Takeaway: Not Crashing, Just Correcting

Is KC crashing? No.

We’re seeing:

• More days on market

• Slightly more inventory

• Stable (even rising) prices

• No flood of distress sales

• Bidding wars in some areas (like Overland Park at $500K+)

So if you’re waiting on a market collapse… you might be waiting a while.

Instead of a crash, we’re watching the market normalize. It’s slower, but more balanced—and that’s a good thing.

Want a Deeper Look? Book a Call

Still wondering whether to buy, sell, or sit tight?
We’d love to help you run the numbers, explore neighborhoods, and figure out what makes sense for you.

📅 Book a call with our team
📧 Or email us at info@movingtokc.net